The 95:5 Rule: Why Most Brands Lose Customers Before They Even Start Shopping

Most brands put all their energy into the here and now: the next campaign, the next discount, the next sale. But the reality is that most of your customers aren’t even ready to buy today.

As our article on Consumer Behaviour Leading up to BFCM explores, customers are deliberate, value-driven and research-heavy in the months before peak shopping events. They’re comparing, bookmarking and shortlisting well before the sales launch.

That’s where John Dawes’ 95:5 rule of marketing offers a useful lens.

A Quick Recap: The 95:5 Rule

The 95:5 rule says that at any given time, only 5% of potential buyers are actively shopping. The other 95% are out-of-market.

“Out-of-market” doesn’t mean uninterested. It means they’re not ready yet. They’re browsing, researching and shaping their preferences.

In the lead-up to sales periods like Black Friday, many of those out-of-market buyers begin to shift into active mode.

The Research Phase: Where the 95% Become the 5%

Think about how people shop in the months before November. They’re building wishlists, bookmarking products, comparing prices, reading reviews and signing up for early-access lists.

By the time sales launch, many already know which brand they’ll buy from. The discount is often just the trigger, not the decision.

That’s why the work you do in September and October matters as much, if not more, than what you push during the sales event itself.

Why Brands Miss This Window

Many DTC brands focus all their energy on conversion tactics during the sale: discount codes, countdown timers, urgent emails.

The problem is that by then it’s often too late. If you haven’t built awareness or trust earlier, you’re invisible when the 95% shift into the 5%.

It’s like showing up at the finish line of a race you never ran.

The brands that win don’t wait until November. They’ve already tested their website experience, built memory through consistent paid campaigns, and nurtured audiences with email and SMS. By the time the 95% are ready to buy, they’re already chosen. It’s not just about selling in November. It’s about shaping decisions long before the sale begins.

How Lifecycle Marketing Supports the 95:5 Rule

The smartest brands don't treat peak sales events as one-off activations. They build lifecycle strategies that align with the 95:5 principle and run them year-round.

Before the buying moment (nurturing the 95%)

• Paid media and awareness strategies keep your brand visible during the research phase. 
• Email and SMS build trust and anticipation.
• A well-optimised website ensures you capture interest through early sign-ups and VIP lists.

When customers are ready to buy (activating the 5%)

• Urgency, bundles and limited-time offers are important.
• Abandoned cart and checkout flows capture intent in real time.
• Email and SMS work together to drive immediacy.
• Onsite optimisation ensures clicks convert.

After the purchase (keeping the 5% engaged)

• Post-purchase journeys keep buyers close.
• Reviews, referrals and loyalty programs extend their value.
• Paid campaigns bring them back sooner and help turn one-off buyers into long-term customers.
  
  

And this isn’t just about Black Friday. The same cycle repeats before every peak season:

• Mother’s Day decisions are often made in April.
• Christmas shopping lists form in October
• Valentine’s preferences are shaped weeks before February.
  

If your brand only shows up with offers at the last moment, you’ve already missed the research phase where decisions are made.

Closing Thought

The 95:5 rule is a reminder that marketing is about more than competing for scraps when demand is already hot.

It’s about playing the long game: building memory, nurturing trust and staying present so that when the 95% become the 5%, your brand is already the first choice.

Black Friday is one example of how this plays out, but the lesson applies to every sales period. The question is: will customers remember you when it counts?

At 30Acres, we help DTC brands prepare for moments like these with full-funnel strategies across paid media, CRO, email and SMS. We connect brand building with activation so you win both today and tomorrow.

Ready to capture not just the 5% who are buying now, but the 95% who are making decisions for the future?